What Should the Lions Do with Number 1?

Since everybody is weighing in on this decsion, I felt it necessary to do the same.  However, my analysis of the situation stems from my logical meditations as opposed to an “expert” analysis of stats and what not.

First of all, this draft seems to have a top QB, Matthew Stafford.  However, not everyone seems sure that this guy can be the Matt Ryan of this year’s draft.  There are some huge questions about his decision making and arm accuracy.  Those seem to be huge reg flags to me.  Also, the chances of this guy being better than Daunte Culpepper are fairly slim in his first season.  Having said that, the sky is the limit for a guy with the arm strength of Stafford.

Secondly, offensive tackle remains the most important position on a football team.  Yes, this is a strange opinion, but I stand by it.  So, taking an OT with the first overall pick could be a great choice.  Jason Smith is a smart and experienced option to take over an offensive line.  Look at what Miami got in Jake Long.  That arguably got them over their awful season and into the playoffs.  I just would hesitate on this kind of pick because it would be more unpopular than taking a flashy QB.

Finally, defense wins championships.  Taking Aaron Curry as the first pick would be risky but smart.  This guy is the most NFL-ready player in the draft and could immediately impact the Lions defense and become a force in stopping the run.  The Lions are going to have trouble scoring again no matter who the QB is so maybe it makes sense to bolster the defense first.

What I think is going to happen is different than what I think SHOULD happen.  Therefore, I will go on record saying Stafford will be the first pick, but Jason Smith SHOULD be the first pick.  The Lions can’t afford to swing and miss on this first pick, and Stafford has more risk involved than Smith.  There have been plenty of QBs with great arm strength who haven’t panned out because a) their suffering accuracy or b) because they have no time in the pocket.  Taking an OT at number one is the smartest thing this pitiful Lions franchise can do.  As long as they don’t take a WR, I will be able to rationalize the decision.